One Normal Day Of Barclays...
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The Week In Ball
We start this week, of course, with the news of Adelaide United player Josh Cavallo coming out as gay. He made his heartfelt announcement on Wednesday and from my brief travels around Twitter was mostly met with positivity and encouragement.
It's true that this shouldn't be news and it shouldn't matter one jot, it's 2021, you feel like we should have moved on by now, but we haven't. Football, men's football, is still an exceedingly hetero presenting sport (I say presenting because I'm sure Josh isn't the only gay, bisexual or queer player out there) and for many people who aren't straight it's a closed shop, so this is a momentous and exciting move. He plays in a top league, he's young and at the beginning of his career. He's showing how you can do this and your career is safe, that you don't have to wait until you've retired to live your truth.
His coming out was beautiful and moving and I wish him nothing but happiness in the future.
Elsewhere, compared to last week, it was a reasonably drama-free weekend once we got the Koeman saga out of the way on the Thursday beforehand.
I'll start with rounding up how my various boys did:
Arsenal won. Again. At some point I'll wake up because this is all very weird! The hero of the day was of course our lord and saviour Aaron Ramsdale and his incredible saves, especially the one from James Maddison's free kick, which drew praise from Peter Schmeichel, despite his son playing in the same match.
He also joined in with the Leicester supporters singing 'you're shit aaaaaaah', a big grin on his face, after he took a goal kick. It made me squeal with joy, it's such a treat having such an all round person on your team: good player, charismatic, a massive troll
Over in Germany BVB beat another of my faves, FC Köln, 2-0 with a goal from the Better Hazard Brother (Thorgan, for avoidance of doubt) and a first Bundesliga goal for Steffen Tigges. A relief that we can live without Haaland. (Of course we can, we've got Jude Bellingham ffs).
Sticking with Dortmund momentarily this is a really great interview with and assessment of Marco Reus, second longest serving player, talismanic captain and former Thirst Trapper.
In Spain, a Koeman-less Barcelona drew with 16th place Alavés leaving them in 9th. I didn't see the match, if it's on catch up I might watch it while I'm working in the week, but it seems they were toothless and lacking precision in attack and any decent decision making. I stand by what I said recently though; they have some great pieces and just need the right manager to unlock them. Let's hope Xavi is the guy to do this as he's currently seeming the most likely to be appointed and handed the poisoned chalice.
Finally, in Italy my guys Milan played the team of my guy José, Roma, in an effort to break José's record of never having been beaten at home in Serie A. And they did it. Roma just couldn't finish, even after Milan went down to ten men following a soft second yellow (imo anyway) for Theo Hernandez. The final score was 1-2 but the first goal, scored by the incredible (and incredibly awful, seriously, read his 'Controversies' section on Wikipedia) Zlatan, was just a thing of such precise beauty. It felt at the time like watching a snooker player lining up a shot and just slotting it in.
So far as non-Emily stanned teams went this weekend, we saw Ole back at the wheel (or should that be on the see-saw?), steering United to a 3-0 win over an utterly toothless, uninspiring, lacklustre Spurs side. As several thousand people tweeted, Spurs really are committed to the 'lads, it's Tottenham' maxim as well as the 'Spurs get battered' one. It now looks like Nuno might be on his way out as all reports this evening (Sunday) suggest he won't be in his job much longer.*
This does however mean that not all can be considered back on track for United. They have the unpredictable Atalanta in the Champions League this week, followed by the Manchester Derby on Saturday. Things absolutely aren't right and this just served to delay the, well, not the inevitable as Ole really does seem to be made of Teflon, but perhaps the time for real soul searching. I mean lads, you're equal with Arsenal now, sitting above us on goal difference only.
Before the game much was discussed about the issues at Old Trafford but the highlight, which I can't move on from United until I've mentioned, was Roy Keane doing a wild Harry Maguire impression. What a legend.
At the bottom of the table Norwich continued with something that is inevitable, their drop back to the Championship, with a loss to an also shaky Leeds in an important early relegation battle.
In the Midlands, Villa again made some tactical and personnel mistakes leading to West Ham, flying high under a rejuvenated David Moyes, beating them 1-4, even without any goals from Antonio.
The biggest shock of the weekend however was Crystal Palace's win over Manchester City. After only six minutes, Wilf Zaha scored to put them in the lead, there then followed disallowed goals and a sending off of Laporte (which if he gets sent off then so should Jonny Evans have been in the Arsenal game) with Palace finally sealing it on 88 minutes with a strike from the workhorse Conor Gallagher.
The last game of the weeked in the PL was Wolves v. Everton on Monday Night Football. Wolves ran riot over Everton in the first half and despite letting in a goal in the second they held on to win 2-1. It was a good game, a classic Monday Night Football duo, but the real kicker was that Dominic Calvert-Lewin was the studio guest (looking fine af in a sweet checked Gucci suit) and he had to analyse his team's failings.
*OK OK as I mentioned and as you can clearly tell I wrote most of this on Sunday so yes, poor Nuno Espirito Santo and his luxurious beard have been relieved of their duties at Tottenham. I use the word relieved advisedly because I imagine it is indeed a real relief to be out of there. I like Nuno a lot, always rated him at Wolves, and as I tweeted I hope he finds a decent fit somewhere soon.
What looks likely to happen now is the arrival of Antonio Conte (which has just been confirmed!), a man linked with every available job going over the past week. Prepare yourselves wisely and ensure you have this saved for every occasion when, despite his best efforts, Spurs do something Spursy under his tenure.
Finally some more late news, which is that after coming off due to experiencing chest pain, Sergio Aguero has been diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmia and told not to play for three months while they try and determine his recovery process. I hope he gets well soon and it's good that it was picked up early, especially given the news of Icelandic player Emil Palsson suffering a cardiac arrest during a second division game in Norway yesterday.
Godspeed Kun! Here's a lovely video of him dicking about on the Barcelona bench.
Kick Off
Alright gang, it's time for the big one, the one you've all been chomping at the bit for*: xG
I think we all know that xG stands for Expected Goals, indeed Wikipedia states that "It can be used to represent the probability of a scoring opportunity that may result in a goal", but annoyingly and predictably it's far more complicated than it sounds in terms of calculation.
If you're more of a visual/aural person then this is an excellent breakdown of the metric, I'll try and precis what it and various other sources say to give you an idea of how it works and where it's useful to use it.
I don't know about you but I think I used to believe xG was calculated by how many goals someone had scored and how many matches they'd played or something very simple like that but actually, it's based on a variety of factors that give you the probability of certain shots being scored.
The measurement is based on a scale from 0, the shot is impossible, to 1, the shot is guaranteed. Figures in between, e.g. an xG of 0.3 mean that for every ten shots from this position etc. the goal will be scored three times. The metric can be used for individuals and teams.
Of course having a high xG doesn't mean that you were the better team, all it means is that you had higher quality and number of chances than the opposing team but if you're creating all these chances then they're saved or missed compared to a team that creates three chances and clinically finishes them all, well, you can work that out for yourself.
In terms of the circumstances of the shot that feeds into the way it's calculated, the list of variables is as follows:
Distance to the goal
Angle to the goal
One-on-one
Big chance
Body part (e.g., header or foot)
Type of assist (e.g., through ball, cross, pull-back etc)
Pattern of play (e.g., open play, fast break, direct free kick, corner kick, throw-in etc)
Penalties are usually calculated separately and are given an xG of 0.79 by Stats Perform.
A typical xG map may look as follows, where the larger the spot the better the chance
A way to use this when it comes to an individual is to have a look at their xG for a season and see how this compares to actual goals scored.
For example, if we take two identical forwards who both took 100 shots at goal you may see Player 1 has an xG of 16.9, so someone getting into similar positions as that player may be expected to score roughly 17 goals. Player 2 has an xG of 8.5 meaning expected goals of roughly 8/9 per season.
If Player 1 has scored 12 goals in that season you can see that they're underperforming and should be expected to convert more of the chances that come their way, whereas Player 2, who has scored 12 goals also, is overperforming and taking better opportunities of the chances presented to him. However, you can also use the xG to analyse the quality of the chances; Player 1 with the higher figure clearly gets into far more high quality positions than Player 2 and is likely to be a higher profile, more expensive striker, whereas you may wish, as a coach, to take a chance on Player 2, who can finish, and coach him into getting into better positions more often and therefore increase his goals scored.
Essentially xG is a useful metric for performance, scouting and general effectiveness of a team/player but what it can't do is predict matches or prove who was the better team during a game.
*I have no evidence of this
The Offside Thirst Trap
We travel to Germany this week, to Frankfurt, home of the ur-Thirst Trap, Kevin 'Thirst' Trapp. A man so dedicated to spreading thirstiness that he included this guy on his instagram Stories and I was smitten. His insta is literally all I know about him so this is a short one today.
Please enjoy Berlin-born defender, Christopher Lenz.
Football 'eritage
After Arsenal beat Leicester, Ian Wright posted a video on his Instagram of the scenes at Match of the Day where, obviously, Ian was ecstatic and Gary was...not.
The scene, for those unfamiliar and why it's in this section, was a riff on the Italia 90 World Cup semi final between England and West Germany. Having just received a yellow card, Gazza suddenly realised that, should things go England's way, he wouldn't be able to play in the World Cup final. He breaks, his face crumples and he starts to cry. A young man of just 23, having burst onto the scene with so much talent and promise, about to perhaps, maybe, it might just be, play in the final of the greatest football competition in the world and it was all taken away from him.
Ever the sensible grown up, Lineker recognised this breakdown, consoled him briefly and then turned to the bench and told them to 'have a word', a moment captured forever on camera.
It's become an iconic moment. Gazza's tears were everywhere, front page news, Spitting Image, adverts where he parodied himself but this moment of care is the thing that, for me anyway, sticks in the mind.
Kit Bag
Friends, readers, countrymen, they've only gone and done it again.
The sublime Venezia shirts have been joined by a fourth; this gorgeous red number that was released on Friday. What a beauty. I know people like to neg Arsenal with the 'Drip FC' moniker but Venezia are doing it for real.
I'm especially enamoured with the "Priest Calendar 2014" vibe of the styling.
Extra Time
On Wednesday the below tweet was unleashed into the world and let me tell you, I have rarely wanted anything more. Just imagine the pure joy of the utter blank canvas that is Jack having these things explained to him. I just feel like he'd be so engaging and charming that it has to happen.
This is just delightful
Take a look at this goal from Ligue 1 this weekend...
Griezmann acting the fool as usual
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